Since the announcement of proposed cuts to the Personal Independence Payment (PIP) on March 12th, I’ve been in dialogue with multiple MPs to raise serious concerns about the long-term consequences of these changes. At the heart of the issue is not just how many people stand to lose vital support, but who will ultimately bear the financial burden and the answer increasingly points to local councils and ordinary taxpayers.
The Scope of the Proposed Cuts
Thanks to a recent FOI request (March 2024), we now have a clearer picture of the human and financial cost if these changes are implemented:
- 1,608,000 claimants currently receive the Enhanced Daily Living component of PIP. Of these, 13% may be impacted, resulting in £23 million in weekly cuts.
- 1,283,000 claimants receive the Standard Daily Living component. An estimated 87% may be impacted, equating to £82 million in weekly cuts.
This means approximately 209,000 people could lose £110.40 per week, and 1.1 million may lose £73.90 per week.
Despite the government’s stated intentions, cutting support for disabled people is unlikely to incentivise work. Instead, it will shift enormous financial pressure onto already overstretched NHS and Local Authority budgets, while further eroding public trust.
Evidence: Most Will Not Move Into Work
While some have argued that reducing PIP will encourage more people into employment, this is not supported by the evidence:
- The Learning and Work Institute found that only 1% of people who are economically inactive due to long-term sickness find work within six months.
- Research by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) showed that removing disability benefits may increase employment by only 4 percentage points initially, reaching 10 percentage points over four years.
- The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) notes that just one-sixth (approx. 16.7%) of PIP recipients are currently in employment, and this figure has remained stable for years.
These findings support the conclusion that fewer than 10% of those who lose support will move into work. For the vast majority, removing PIP will lead not to employment, but to deeper financial hardship and increased reliance on public services.
Local Authorities Carry the Weight of Adult Social Care
One critical but often overlooked point is this: Local Authorities are legally and financially responsible for the majority of Adult Social Care (ASC) in the UK.
Under the Care Act 2014, councils are mandated to deliver and fund ASC services, ranging from personal care to supported living. The NHS plays a role, but it is local councils who manage ongoing care provision and bear the brunt of cost increases. As outlined by the Local Government Association, these duties are core to council operations and budgets.
This means that any surge in demand -particularly- one triggered by withdrawing central disability support will translate directly into either council tax increases or cuts elsewhere in local services.
Council Tax
Despite the various ways English councils charge for ASC as part of their Council Tax bill’s the percentage of the total bill is already significant.
Examples for 2024/25 :
- Sandwell Council: Charges £251.58 for ASC on a £1,737.08 bill (Sandwell Council) – 14.5%
- Stoke-on-Trent: Charges £214.20 for ASC on a £1,618.25 bill (Stoke-on-Trent Council) – 13.2%
- Chelmsford: Charges £226.44 for ASC (exact total bill not listed) (Chelmsford City Council)
So, 10–15% of council tax already funds ASC – a share that will rise sharply with increased demand.
What Would A 180% Increase in Demand Mean?
If PIP cuts lead to 1,192,725 new people needing long-term ASC, the total population in care could rise from 660,460 to 1,853,185 A 180.6% increase.
To fund this solely via council tax without cutting other services:
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Current ASC % Extra Needed (£) % Increase to Full Bill 10% (£182.71) £328.88 18.0% 15% (£274.06) £493.31 27.0%
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This would mean an average household could see their Council Tax bill rise by 18-27%, (an increase of approximately £328 to £493 a year) not to improve services, but simply to maintain current care levels in the face of rising demand.
The Bigger Picture: A System Under Strain
The King’s Fund highlights the ongoing crisis in social care funding. The NHS is already overwhelmed. Many councils are operating under emergency financial measures. Shifting financial pressure from central government to local councils is not sustainable.
Rather than penalise vulnerable people, we need evidence-based reforms, starting with investment in primary care and a public health approach to long-term sickness, not reactionary benefit cuts.
Conclusion
The question is not whether we can afford to maintain PIP—but whether we can afford not to. The costs will not disappear; they will simply reappear in council tax bills, hospital wards, and social care wait lists.
Cuts to PIP are not savings. They are deferred costs, paid in full -with interest- by local taxpayers and the people least able to bear them.
TAP April 2025
Sources:-
FOI Request Data (March 2024)
🔗 https://t.co/trAxJoNDQQ
Learning and Work Institute – Long-Term Sickness and Employment
🔗 https://learningandwork.org.uk/resources/research-and-reports/
Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) – Disability Benefits and Employment
🔗 https://ifs.org.uk/publications/does-cutting-disability-benefits-increase-employment
Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) – Welfare and Labour Market Reports
🔗 https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2024/
Care Act 2014 – Legal Responsibility for Adult Social Care
🔗 https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2014/23/contents/enacted
King’s Fund – Adult Social Care
🔗 https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/insight-and-analysis/data-and-charts/key-facts-figures-adult-social-care
Council Tax and ASC Precepts – Sandwell Council 2024/25
🔗 https://www.sandwell.gov.uk/council-tax/council-tax-charges
Council Tax and ASC Precepts – Stoke-on-Trent City Council
🔗 https://www.stoke.gov.uk/info/20001/council_tax/313/council_tax_charges
Chelmsford City Council – ASC Precept Info
🔗 https://www.chelmsford.gov.uk/council-tax/your-council-tax/
UK Government Statistics
🔗 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/adult-social-care-in-england-monthly-statistics-july-2024/adult-social-care-in-england-monthly-statistics-july-2024
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